With a mixed bag of weather events, Kentucky crops are about as good as could be expected at this point in the year. 

As the agricultural growing season continues, farm families have had to face several weather issues over the past few months-from moderate drought to excessive storms.

And while being at the mercy of Mother Nature is nothing new in the ag industry, consistency has been hard to come by when it comes to typical Kentucky weather patterns in 2023.

Fortunately, the latest USDA report shows that most state crops are in “fair to excellent” condition despite those varying weather issues.

University of Kentucky Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food, and Environment Extension Professor and Director of Grain and Forage Center of Excellence Chad Lee said the state has seen swings from wet, cool, and cloudy, to very hot and dry, to torrential rainfall and hail.

“The crop conditions are good considering all the weather challenges, and we have a chance to have a good year for corn and soybeans,” he said. “The weather in July and August is the biggest influencer on corn yields, while the weather during August will largely determine the soybean crop.”

Weather specifics

Kentucky State Climatologist and Director of the Kentucky Climate Center and Kentucky Mesonet, Dr. Jerry Brotzge said last spring was seasonable and dry, which allowed for early planting only to be followed by a pattern with little rainfall that settled beginning in April.

“The start of summer in June (saw) continued cool temperatures, averaging 1.8 F below normal, and fortunately, precipitation has rebounded across much of Kentucky when it was needed most,” he said.

In looking at the longer-term forecast, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting above-normal temperatures and average to above-normal precipitation most likely for this fall (August-October).

Lee noted that crops need August to be at or near normal for temperatures and above normal for rainfall to ensure excellent corn and soybean yields. Ideally, precipitation would drop below normal for September and be at normal levels for October to help with harvest, but provide enough moisture to plant wheat.

Brotzge said, after the August-October period, a developing El Nino (ENSO) could begin to influence conditions across Kentucky.

“A typical El Nino year brings drier-than-normal precipitation to Kentucky during the winter, although not always,” he said. “The CPC is forecasting average to drier-than-normal conditions for Kentucky this winter, followed by an above-normal, wetter spring in 2024.”

Crop specifics

While June rains were needed on most crops, the precipitation caused a delay in much of the wheat harvest in many areas.

As of mid-July, the wheat harvest was slightly behind the five-year average. And while there have been no reports of widespread damage, according to information from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Kentucky Field Office, there were some isolated incidents of wind and water damage. Many growers also had issues with moisture content as the harvest progressed.  

Still, if the latest NASS prediction holds, Kentucky growers are on pace to have the second-largest wheat crop on record.

Hardin County producer Ray Allan Mackey said even with these weather-related challenges, the growing season, overall, got off to a good start.

“I know there are a few counties in West Kentucky that are still somewhat dry, but Kentucky has had some good rains over the last several weeks,” he said.

Mackey, who serves as a member of the Kentucky Farm Bureau Federation (KFBF) Board of Directors, chair of the Kentucky Corn Promotion Council, and is on the Board of Directors for the Kentucky Pork Producers, has seen the many ag sectors, especially the state’s grain industry, expand exponentially over the past several years.

“I think we're doing the right things at the right time to grow good crops,” he said. “We've got the tools to work with, including equipment, technology, and crop varieties and protections that get us off to a good start.”

Mackey added a couple of important points verifying that Kentucky farmers can grow a crop that competes in the environment, and they produce it as well as anyone in the country.

“We are also always looking for ways to be more efficient; growing more with less,” he said.  “Pushing yield is the main way to do that and the best way to increase yield is with better hybrids, more timely applications, or more timely planting. So, we're making good strides in achieving those things.”

Tobacco is still a cash crop

In addition to his grain production, Mackey also raises burley tobacco. He said his crop is off to a good start, as well.

“It's already spreading out trying to cover the ground, so I think we'll have a good crop if it doesn’t get too much rain,” he said. “Tobacco is a crop that needs the right amount of rain at the right time and then it needs a timely harvest.”

Getting that timely harvest, though, requires a dependable labor force, something that is an issue all its own and can be quite costly.

“I think the tobacco companies recognize that it’s more expensive to grow a crop of tobacco than it used to be, and they are making some additions to the price to help mitigate higher costs for inputs and higher labor costs,” Mackey said. “I feel like the tobacco companies are trying to put some incentives out there to keep enough tobacco growing and to encourage or entice folks like me to continue to grow it.”

He added that he has the infrastructure and a great labor force through the H-2A program while acknowledging tobacco is just something that fits his operation.

“It’s not a good fit for everyone, and one reason we continue to grow it is because it's been good to us over the years,” he said.

Farm Bill perspective

As the Farm Bill deadline draws closer, there are issues affecting farm families that can be addressed in this legislation. Advocacy is key to making that happen.

Mackey said one of the main priorities for agriculture is to maintain crop insurance.  

“We must maintain any income deficiency programs that are out there to protect the farmer in case of a disaster,” he said. “Another ask would be to adjust the reference prices for grain to more adequately reflect the cost of production.”

Mackey said current reference prices are decades old.

“They don't reflect what it now costs to grow a corn, soybean, or wheat crop as input prices have skyrocketed in the last three or four years,” he said. “That's something that we need to try to keep putting out there, and we know finding that new money is going to be difficult. But I think, as Farm Bureau members and farmers across the nation, we’re going to continue to ask for what is necessary to at least maintain our agricultural position in the world.”