A mixed bag of weather events has harvest numbers varying.

MORGANTOWN, Ky. -  As Kentucky corn and soybean producers move through their harvest season, yields have varied depending on farm locations and whether Mother Nature was kind or not.  

Producers in the western part of the state seemed to fare better as of late September than those further east.

Chad Lee, extension professor for grain crops at the University of Kentucky Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment (UKMGCA) and director of the UK Grain and Forage Center of Excellence said in referring to the growing season, this year has been a tale of two regions.

“It's really dramatically different from west to east this year and I would tell farmers, don’t judge your farming ability based off of this year,” he said.

Lee noted that the growing season has not been so much about total precipitation but the timing of those rainfalls.

"In general, the (western) part of the state's doing pretty good, and some crops will be the best ever; a lot of it will be top-five yields," he said. "However, full-season soybeans have had a difficult time but some of the double crop beans might be a little bit better."

Crop conditions can be tracked by the weekly reports from the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Eastern Mountain Regional Field Office. The most current report, as of press time, indicated the state's soybean crop was 46 percent good and seven percent excellent, while the corn crop was listed as 54 percent good and 13 percent excellent.

NASS was still calling for a record soybean crop, as of September 1, in Kentucky along with the sixth largest corn crop.  However, by the time the agency’s October and November reports are released, those numbers could change. There are two more NASS forecasts to be released on October 1 and November 8.

The growers’ perspective

Shane Wells, a producer from Butler County said he is hopeful for a good harvest despite the dry weather experienced late in the growing season.

“We've had really good weather up until about the middle of August and then it started getting dry, but we think our crops are looking pretty good,” he said. “We’re just afraid that this heat and dry weather may have trimmed some (yield) off the top.”

As the harvest part of the season began, Wells said that some farmers in his area who had earlier planted crops have been pretty pleased with yields so far.

While their production numbers may be good, budgets are another story as grain prices have fallen throughout the summer.

"The numbers weren't good on early budgets, and they haven't gotten better through the growing season," Wells said. "I guess farmers are always looking for that glimmer of hope and probably right now, it's that we've worked through some of this extra supply that we've had from this old  crop and that maybe new crop prices will get a rebound after the first of the year."

Wells recognizes the balancing act that goes along with raising a crop, but as a fifth-generation farmer, he has seen years like this one before.  In addition to his on-farm activities, Wells has been on the Butler County Conservation Board since 1993, and currently serves on the Kentucky Association of Conservation Districts (KACD) having been its president for four years, from 2018 to 2022. He also serves as a director for the Kentucky Soybean Association as well as a committee member on the Kentucky Farm Bureau Environmental Stewardship and Grain Crops Advisory Committees.

“We can do everything exactly right, and a week or two of bad weather, whether it's wet or dry, can totally change the whole season,” he said. “But I hope that we're going to be pleasantly surprised with yields. We expect we'll have to do some drying on the corn and get it out in a timely fashion, and then hope that the markets make a little bit of a rebound for us.”

Jason McGlone farms at the other end of the state in Carter County. This sixth-generation farmer has seen his share of tough seasons, as well, and is staying somewhat optimistic as he moves further into his harvest. But the summer drought conditions have taken a toll on this year's corn and soybean crops.

The family farm was founded in 1883 and today consists of corn, wheat, soybeans, and hay crops, along with their cattle operation. The McGlones also operate a family farm supply store.

“Beginning in the spring, it was wet for us like everyone else so, we didn't get in the fields to start planting until the first week of May,” he said. “After that, we had a good stretch of weather but by June it just turned dry.”

McGlone, who serves as Carter County’s Generation Bridge Chair and sits on the KFB Grain Crops Advisory Committee, said their wheat harvest was decent and their double crop beans received some rain in July but not much after that. He added that there are spots in their corn that look good while others do not at all.

"Our full-season beans look decent, but time will tell,” he said. “I don't think that we are going to have half the bean size that we normally get. It’s just really been an odd year.”

The weather perspective

Dr. Jerry Brotzge, Kentucky State Climatologist, and director of the Kentucky Climate Center and Kentucky Mesonet said following the sixth wettest May on record, the summer (Jun-Aug) was the 36th warmest and the 31st driest on record leaving much of the state in various stages of drought from abnormally dry conditions to severe drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor information as of its September 26 report.

In fact, Western Kentucky had been dealing with a rapidly developing ‘flash drought’, whereas Eastern Kentucky was dealing with a longer-term drought, along with Ohio and West Virginia.

That is until Hurricane Helene showed up, wreaking havoc from Florida and Georgia, through North Carolina and Tennessee and finally parking over Kentucky as a tropical depression. The winds and rain (as much as six inches in some areas)  caused numerous power outages, unknown structure and tree damage, with the possibility of some crop damage.

“So far this summer, we've had three tropical systems bring much-needed rain to the state: Hurricane Beryl in July, Hurricane Francine in mid-September, and now Hurricane Helene which is expected to reduce drought's impacts as we head into this fall,” Brotzge said. 

He added that our history is filled with tropical storms that passed through the state during droughts.

“A few examples include Hurricane Isidore in 2002, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Tropical Storm Olga in 2019, and now, Hurricane Helene.

While helping with dry conditions, it comes a little too late to aid much of the cropland in Kentucky.

The market perspective

Even in sub-par growing seasons, Kentucky producers have steadily upped yield production over the years validating their high-level knowledge of just what it takes to be productive on the farm, no matter the weather.

The market environment is a different story, however, as farm families have been at the mercy of a volatile market environment they have faced this year.

KFB Commodity Marketing Specialist Taylor Thompson said marketing corn and soybeans brings with it a lot of uncertainty.

“Ensuring the crop is harvested in a timely manner and transported to the desired location poses several challenges,” he said. “Tack on downward price pressures and the uncertainty only increases. The substantial declines in corn and soybean prices have certainly shifted the equation for many producers.”

Thompson added that storing corn when the cash price is above $5 versus $4 is a very different financial situation for producers.

“With that said, we are now transitioning to a phase where much discussion, is currently, and will be, around crop carryout to the new year, Mississippi River levels as it pertains to transporting grain, export demand, and Brazilian crop planting progress,” he said. “Fluctuations in price will largely depend on the narrative around these matters paired with the supply and demand situation. Commodity markets are very dynamic, and opportunities can appear at any time.”