CBOT futures closed sharply higher today, adding to the strong gains made Friday. The fireworks were ignited about 830 am CT. Futures rallied until after 11:15; after a minor correction, futures closed strongly, led by soybeans, within a penny of the day’s highs. Wheat futures didn’t participate in the closing rally, so ended 5-7 cents below the day’s highs.

Warmer and drier weather forecasts for the next 10 days supported futures with very heavy fund buying amplifying the gains. Short-covering ahead of the USDA Crop Report and WASDE at 11 am CT Wednesday was also supportive. Futures made some important moves on the corn and soybean charts. December Corn closed the July 27th down gap, while September Corn came within a half-cent of doing the same. November Soybeans closed its July 27th down gap on Friday. Then on today’s open, gapped higher to create an “island bottom”. This makes today’s low of $9.65 a key support level.

Traders will remain wary of Wednesday’s USDA reports and stay in contact with their private meteorologists to react if the weather forecast improves. Since the funds expanded their large LONG positions, it increases the risk of heavy liquidation. Prepare for volatile prices and use good risk management. Crop ratings show crop conditions are fairly stable from a week ago. KY has 29% of corn in DENT stage.

As of August 9, 2015 Corn Conditions – 18 States . Good/Excellent Poor/V.Poor This Week 70% 9% Last Week 70 9 Year Ago 73 7 All of these are unchanged from a week ago.

Corn Dented 9% this week vs 9% year ago and 15% for 2010-14 average.

Soybean Conditions – 18 States . Good/Excellent Poor/V.Poor This Week 63% 11% Last Week 63 11 Year Ago 70 7

Winter Wheat Harvested This Week 97% Last Week 93 Year Ago 94

Pasture Conditions 55% good/excellent vs 14% poor/v.poor

Live Cattle futures closed slightly higher, continuing the uptrend in place since the market bottomed July 27. LC futures were supported by the $3-4/cwt pop in cash cattle prices ($150-152) last week and by very strong midday beef values today. Choice beef ended up 2.18 at 238.52; Select closed up 1.78 at 231.92. Feeder Cattle futures tried to move higher but the sharp CBOT rally wiped the gains out within the opening 30 minutes of trade; futures climbed about $1.50/cwt off those early lows.

U.S. stock indexes rose sharply today, ending a 7-day losing streak. Support came from a recovery in energy prices and by a big merger announcement.

Corn Sep +17 390; Dec +17 401; Dec16 +11 410 Bean Sep +33 1008; Nov +31 994; Nov16 +25 941 Meal +9 354 Oil +36 3049 Wheat Sep +15 525; Jly +14 545 KC +11 504; MGE +9 534 Oats -2 234 Rice +43 1186

LC Aug +67 15025; Oct +77 14930; Feb +57 15002 FC Aug +12 21425; Oct -5 20822; Jan +5 20100 LH Aug -67 7665; Oct -115 6297; Dec -102 5945 Milk Aug -5 1642; Sep +14 1670

 

US$ -.4% Dow +242 17615 SP +27 2104 NAS +58 5102 Tran +121 8372 VIX -1.16 12.23

WTI +96 4483 Brent +157 5018 Gas +7 169 NG +4 284 HO +4 159 Eth +3 149 Gold +10 1104 Slvr +37 1519

2-yr +.004 0.729% 5-yr +.034 1.615% 10yr +.057 2.232% 30yr +.071 2.899%

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for the week of Aug 3-8 2015. Receipts This Week   Last Week   Last Year 14,155    10,252   19,285 Compared to last week steer calves sold steady to 4.00 higher and heifer calves 2.00 to 5.00 higher with instances sharply higher for calves below 500 lbs. Demand was good to very good for a good through attractive quality offering. Yearling steers sold steady to 3.00 higher with good demand and yearling heifers sold steady to 2.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to 1.00 lower with moderate demand. Slaughter bulls sold 2.00 to 4.00 lower with light to moderate demand.

Supply consisted of 7 percent slaughter, 4 percent replacement, and 89 percent feeder cattle. In the feeder supply, steers made up approximately 44 percent and heifers approximately 34 percent. Steers and heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 51 percent.