U.S. markets of all types appeared to shrug off the Ukraine/Russia and Israel situations as significant risks to economies, trade and prices. Fundamentals for ag commodities are bearish into 2015 and SP500 corporate earnings reports have been better than expected on average.

Wheat futures dropped sharply, reversing Thursday’s rally on the downed airplane incident. Wheat supplies will be plentiful in the world. Technically, the speculative funds have a large short position and are happy to sell more to push the price down. Wheat futures have steadily trended lower since highs were set in early May.

Corn futures were pressured by the big losses in wheat. December Corn traded to a new contract low. This week’s pause in the downtrend may be over.

Soybean futures posted limited losses as the old-crop supply is tight and China has been purchasing new-crop soybeans at these price levels. But don’t forget how big the U.S. crop could be with favorable August weather. Downside price risk remains significant as the spec funds are probably just beginning to build their short bean positions.

Cattle futures closed higher on better than expected cash cattle prices – dropped no more than $1.00 this week. Cash at $155-157/cwt is at a strong premium to the nearby August LC futures price. Boxed beef ended the week lower. Choice carcasses down 1.36 at 248.45; Select down 1.59 at 242.65/cwt. August LC has recovered 50% of the losses made last week.

Lean Hog futures closed mostly higher in deferred contracts but fell sharply in the nearby August LH contract. Cash hog prices were weak today but pork remained firm. FOB Plant Pork gained .47 to close at 137.56/cwt. Traders are challenged by the unknown number of hogs to be marketed due to the winter PEDv effect. Hog weights have been running far above normal, thus keeping pork production within 4 percent of year-ago levels.

Corn Sep -8 371;Dec -9 378 (378-89); Dec’15 -8 418 Bean Aug +2 1177; Sep -6 1104; Nov -9 1085 (1082-1101); Nov’15 -8 1093 Meal Aug unch 380; Oct -5 354 Oil +20 3657 Wheat Sep -18 532; Dec -17 556; Jly -15 605 (604-24) KC -15 634; MGE -7 630 Oats -6 331 Rice -15 1312

LC Aug +97 15162; Dec +70 15455; Apr +25 15417 FC Aug +5 21165; Oct +20 21255; Mar unch 20460 LH Aug -177 12707; Oct -17 11355; Feb +22 9927 Milk Aug -9 2133; Sep -9 2033

US$ steady

Dow +123 17100 SP +20 1978 NAS +69 4432 Tran +106 8385 VIX -2.48 12.06 -17%

WTI -25 10195 Brent -75 10714 Gas -2 286 NG unch 395 HO -1 210 Eth -1 210 Gold -7 1309 Slvr -25 2089

2-yr +.020 0.484% 5-yr +.016 1.666% 10yr +.007 2.482% 30yr -.001 3.288%

June Milk Production up 2.0 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during June totaled 16.2 billion pounds, up 2.0 Percent from June 2013. May revised production at 16.9 billion pounds, was up 1.6 percent from May 2013. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,888 pounds for June. This is the highest production per cow for the month of June since the 23 State series began in 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.57 million head, 11,000 head more than May 2014.

April - June Milk Production up 1.6 Percent Milk production in the United States during the April - June quarter totaled 52.8 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from the April - June quarter last year. 

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