CBOT futures closed mixed.  Corn and soybeans closed relatively unchanged considering the very wide trading ranges seen following the USDA Supply-Demand Report. Futures spiked higher upon release of the data at 11 am CDT, but fell back to the day’s lows before 11:30 am. Wheat futures fell sharply before corn and beans due to the more bearish ending stocks forecasts. Corn was supported by significant cuts in 2015/16 and 2016/17 ending stocks forecasts. However, US corn stocks remain huge with 1.71 billion bushels this year and 2.01 billion bushels for 17/18. Soybean futures closed with gains after posting new highs for the current weeks-long rally. Soybeans were supported by falling Brazilian production estimates and sharp reductions in US ending stocks estimates for this and next year. Compared to the May report, 2016/17 ending soybean stocks dropped 45 million bushels to 260 million bushels. This compares to 191 million ending stocks for the 2014/15 crop year when the average farm price was $10.10/bushel.  USDA’s projection for the 2016/17 average farm price is $8.75-10.25; this is up 40 cents/bushel from the May WASDE.  

Be aware that today’s WASDE did not adjust acreages; traders fully expect the June 30 Planted Acreage report will show an increase in soybean acreage. The Quarterly Grain Stocks report will also be released that day.

The speculative crowd has huge long positions in corn and soybeans.  The trend is their “friend” for now and the turn to hotter/drier weather may keep sellers at bay.  Just know that if the picture turns wetter, the speculators will have trouble getting out without hurting prices.  

Cattle futures closed strongly lower on a lack of cash market direction and demand concerns.  However, boxed beef values were higher -- Choice carcasses up 0.82 at 227.67; Select carcasses up 1.46 at 204.30. 

Lean Hog futures closed lower in June/July and higher in deferred contracts.  Summer contracts were weighed by weaker cash hogs and pork markets -- FOB Plant Pork dropped 1.18 to 86.32 on sharply lower loin values.

The US Dollar strengthened as European stocks and bond yields fell amid concerns for global growth. US stocks followed the foreign markets down. Talk of possible NEGATIVE yields in Europe raised market risk. All of this finally broke crude oil prices – July futures ended over $2.60 below yesterday’s high.

Corn Jly -3 423; Dec -3 431

Bean Jly +2 1178; Nov +10 1163

  Meal unch 414

  Oil -27 3276

Wheat Jly -15 495; Dec -15 525

  KC -16 468; MGE -15 538

Oats -3 202

Rice +3 1135

 

LC Jun -75 12245; Oct -130 11680; Dec -137 11685

FC Aug -175 14555; Oct -97 14265; Jan -115 13432

LH Jun -40 8227; Aug +15 8662; Oct +52 7280

Milk Jun unch 1325; Jly -50 1454

US$ +.5%

Dow -120 17865

SP -19 2096

NAS -64 4895

Tran -117 7765

  VIX +2.39  17.03  +16.3%

 

WTI -167 4889

Brent -151 5044

Gas -6 156

NG -4 258

HO -3 152

Eth -2 166

Gold +6 1276

Slvr +7 1734

 

2-yr -.033 0.734%

5-yr -.044 1.169%

10yr -.036 1.644%

30yr -.026 2.455%

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