CBOT futures closed mixed following today’s USDA crop production and supply-demand reports. The reports were bearish corn and wheat, but friendly to the soybean market. The strong rally in soybeans resulted from a 0.4 bushel drop in the average US yield which also reduced the 2017/18 carryout. However, the 4.43 billion bushel soybean crop is still record large. Technical buying was also encouraged as prices rose above key moving averages and the September highs. The spec funds were huge buyers of soybean and meal futures. A 1.9 bushel increase in the U.S. corn yield to 171.8 bushels was more than expected. The 14.3 billion bushel corn crop is six percent smaller than last year’s crop. Corn closed higher on spillover support from the soy complex.

KENTUCKY CROPS

Corn: 216 million bushels on a RECORD average yield of 174.0 bu/acre (up 3 bu. From September and up 15 from 2016).

Soybeans: 103 million bushels on a RECORD average yield of 53.0 bu/acre (up 1 from September and up 3 bu from 2016). KY’s acreage, yield and production are record large.

Tobacco and Hay estimates are at the end of this message.  

 

Live cattle futures opened lower, tested this week’s highs and then sold off to close near the day’s lows.  Futures were pressured by light cash trade at steady values and October LC are at a good premium to cash.  The beef market posted gains --

Choice gained 1.12 to 197.44 and Select rose .69 to 189.45. Feeder Cattle futures except for the nearby October FC closed mostly $2.00+ lower.  Late-day sales of fed cattle are reported at $111/cwt which is a good sign.

Lean Hog futures opened slightly higher but soon headed south for the rest of the day.  It appears traders weren’t ready to push LH futures above last week’s highs without more support in the hog and pork markets. FOB Plant Pork gained .15 to 73.82 with most cuts lower offset by a 2.5% higher belly value.

Corn Dec +3 349 (342-54); Mar +3 363

Bean Nov +27 992 (959-98); Mar +26 1012

  Meal +11 326

  Oil +13 3328

Wheat Dec -3 430; Jly -3 475 (473-81)

  KC -2 426; MGE -8 611

Oats +9 262

Rice +21 1225

 

LC Oct -142 11235; Feb -97 12120; Apr -62 12205

FC Oct -60 15355; Jan -200 15225; Apr -235 14925

LH Oct -55 6070; Dec -87 6162; Feb -95 6682

Milk Oct -3 1668; Nov -6 1611

 

US$ +.2%

Dow -32 22841

SP -4 2551

NAS -12 6592

Tran +61 10038

  VIX +.09 9.94

 

WTI -61 5069

Brent -54 5640

Gas -2 159

NG +10 299

HO -2 177

Eth unch 143

Gold +7 1296

Slvr +13 1726

 

2-yr -.004 1.517%

5-yr -.015 1.940%

10yr -.024 2.321%

30yr -.028 2.848%

 

Kentucky burley tobacco production is forecast at 132 million pounds, up five percent from the September forecast and up 24 percent from 2016. Yield was projected at 2,100 pounds per acre, up 100 pounds from last month and up 350 pounds from the 2016 crop. Harvested acreage was estimated at 63,000 acres, up 2,000 acres from last year's crop. For the burley producing states production is forecast at 166 million pounds, up 19 percent from last year. Burley growers plan to harvest 81,500 acres, up two percent from 2016. Yields were expected to average 2,032 pounds per acre, up 285 pounds from last year.

Production of Kentucky dark fire-cured tobacco is forecast at 35.7 million pounds, unchanged from the September forecast and up 63 percent from the previous year. Dark air-cured tobacco production is forecast at 15.6 million pounds, down four percent from the September forecast and up 103 percent from last year.

Alfalfa hay production by Kentucky farmers is forecast at 585,000 tons, up eight percent the 2016 level. Other hay production is estimated at 5.25 million tons, up four percent from last year.

Kentucky Farm Bureau Minute video  - Click Here

KENTUCKY CASH GRAIN PRICES – Click Here

KENTUCKY LIVESTOCK AUCTIONS --  Click Here