Declining cow numbers have producers looking at a long-term solution.

The decline in the U.S. cattle inventory continues as the latest USDA report verifies a drop in herd numbers from last year. According to information from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, there were 86.7 million head of cattle and calves on U.S. farms as of January 1, 2025, with 27.9 million beef cows in the U.S as of the same date, marking a one percent decline from last year. 

David Knopf, Regional Director of the National Agricultural Statistics Service Eastern Mountain and Northeastern Regional Field Offices said the number of cattle in Kentucky continued to decline, as well, falling two percent from 2024 to an inventory of 1,850,000.

“This is the fewest number of cattle on January 1 since 1955,” he said. “Beef cow numbers followed a similar trend, but there was an increase in the number of heifers for beef cow replacement.”

If there is a silver lining, cattle prices continue to be high, along with continued consumer demand. Kentucky's projected farm cash receipts for 2024 stand around $8 billion, propped up by livestock numbers.

But turning around herd numbers will not be an overnight success for various reasons. University of Kentucky Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment Extension Professor and Livestock Specialist Kenny Burdine said many factors contribute to the continued decline, and getting the situation headed in the right direction could take some time.

“Everything starts with cow/calf operations,” he said. “When you've got fewer cows out there and a smaller supply of calves moving through markets, that also means a smaller pool of calves for backgrounders and stocker operators.” 

Burdine points to a few issues that are helping to contribute to these lower numbers.

“If you look at beef cow inventory, we've got a lot of land constraints in Kentucky. We have lost a lot of pasture ground to row crops over the last several years,” he said. “Plus, land is very expensive, so it's hard to get started. All those things are leading to us seeing smaller numbers of cattle.”

And then there is the price factor as cattle prices remain high making for better profitability for producers.

"I think there are some producers who are hesitant to hold back heifers for development because they are so valuable, and the same thing can be said about cull cows," Burdine said. "With high cull cow prices, producers are likely to cull a little deeper than they would have otherwise, which is also contributing to a lack of growth in the cowherd."

But a turnaround will likely happen, just not in the near future. Burdine said there are a few things that have to line up to see the cow herd expand.

“Those include profit at the cow-calf level, availability of pasture, and the patience to retain heifers for development to increase cow numbers in the future,” he said. “Profit is largely there right now, but we're coming off several tough years, so we may also be seeing some recouping of capital. “

With pastures having been lost or beaten down by difficult weather conditions. Burdine also pointed out that if weather conditions do cooperate in 2025, some heifer retention could be seen, but he doesn’t see a path where a larger cow herd will be realized a year from now.

“I just don't think there's enough heifers in the system right now to do that,” he said.

Donovan Pigg, Kentucky Farm Bureau Livestock Marketing Specialist said while cow numbers are the lowest they have been in 60 years, retaining heifers is one of the keys to building it back.

“Heifers on feed, are still running at 40 percent, so that doesn't indicate to me that we're retaining many of them,” he said. “But I think we're in the stage to start potentially retaining or maybe buying some back, which could help in building this cow herd back.”

Pigg thinks building a quality cow herd back is very important in any build-back process and there is an opportunity to do that through high-end genetics.

“It’s one thing to build a cow herd back, but I think it's another thing to build back with high-quality animals,” he said, “At the local level, we can focus on genetics to help increase the quality of our animals and give a little more value for them down the road.”

But current high prices are enticing producers to sell a little quicker than they might normally do, according to Pigg.

“A lot of our producers have a really good, young group of cows, but there are just not a lot of them,” he said. “Prices for cows, bulls, and slaughter bulls have gotten extremely high, and a lot of these cows have hit the market. I foresee that continuing, and I think that'll even tighten as we go forward.”

Mitchel Logsdon, a beef producer from Hart County and KFB State Director said while inventory numbers are low, the last couple of years have brought some welcome economic relief to cow/calf operators.

“The last four or five years were very lean at the best for cow-calf operators after the inputs had increased along with other expenses and prices that hadn't kept up, leaving slim margins," he said. "But the last couple of years have been a boost to the cow-calf producers who needed to catch up, and it's been very helpful.”

Logsdon added that as a cattle producer, he knows the cattle industry has historically seen up-and-down trends.

“My father had an old saying, ‘The faster it goes up, the faster it comes down,’ and it tends to be true, and we always have that in the back of our minds. Financially, you need to try to prepare for that. And when you have those years that your income's a lot more, you need to try to adjust for that.”

Logsdon said he doesn’t see a lot of signs of expansion in the cow herd right now, with supply and demand still driving the situation, and while buyers seem concerned about filling their orders, and finding enough feeders, that could create some security for the cow-calf producer.

Expansion of the herd will come slowly but it is something most producers want to do and can do.

“Most of the time you need to look at opportunities to expand, especially with the scale of economics that we deal with these days, and you need to look for ways to expand, but you also have to be careful,” Logsdon said. “Retaining heifers is the mainstay of the expansion in the beef industry, but typically, that's a three-year process almost. But it takes a while to see the income from any expansion. You have to ask if it’s going to be sustainable. When the market and the other end of that curve starts back down, are you going to be able to maintain this when some of those leaner years come back?"

Logsdon who also serves as chair of the KFB Beef Cattle Advisory Committee, the KFB Federation’s representative on the U.S. Meat Export Federation, and a member of the Cattleman Beef Check-Off Board sees the industry from several perspectives. He said that even though prices at the consumer level have increased, the beef industry still has a solid customer base.

“You can't deny that prices on the grocery shelf are going to affect the industry to an extent, but we have a good base of customers,” Logsdon said. “The checkoff board does a tremendously good job utilizing the dollars they have, whether it's in promotion or market research, and figuring out where those markets are.”

There have been many estimates as to when the cattle herd will begin to increase. Pigg said he thinks it is still at least a year or two away.

"Some economists had talked starting January 2025, and I thought their predictions were a little hopeful on that, but I could see the middle of 2026, or the first of 2027  in really starting to either retain heifers or developing heifers to be sold as replacements. So, I could see a small expansion. Now, we're not going to jump back to 31 million head overnight by any means, but I think we will start trending back up over the next four to five years."